Pakistan’s Looming Water Crisis Deepens Amid India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty
- MGMMTeam
- Jun 10
- 3 min read
In late April 2025, India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—an accord fundamental to Pakistan’s agricultural backbone. This decision followed the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, which India attributed to cross-border terrorism. As a result, water inflows along Pakistan’s key Indus tributaries—Chenab, Jhelum, and the main Indus—have sharply declined, raising alarms across the country. While India retains only limited storage capacity on these rivers, its maintenance activities have temporarily slashed downstream flows, triggering fears among Pakistani farmers.
Impact on Agriculture and Reservoir Levels
According to Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA), water discharges into Punjab are approximately 13 percent lower compared to last year—124,500 cusecs on June 5 versus around 144,000 cusecs in 2024 . More troubling estimates indicate that Chenab inflows could be short by 21 percent this season, jeopardizing key Kharif crops such as rice, maize, and cotton.
At the same time, vital reservoirs—most notably Tarbela and Mangla—are nearing critically low levels under the dual pressures of heatwave conditions and reduced water supply. With Pakistan’s economy relying on the Indus system for over 90 percent of crop irrigation and nearly 20 percent of its hydropower, the ramifications of any prolonged water shortfall are profound.
Environmental Toll on the Delta and Mangrove Ecosystems
With reduced river flows, the Indus Delta—previously shrinking at alarming rates—faces accelerating ecological degradation. The freshwater-saltwater balance has been upset, leading to increased salinity intrusion, coastal erosion, and damaged mangrove habitats and biodiversity. The loss of sediment—central to sustaining the delta—now contributes to rising subsidence, displacing communities and disrupting fisheries that sustain over a million livelihoods in Sindh.
India’s Strategic Calculus and Infrastructure Push
India has responded with a multifaceted strategy focused on bolstering infrastructure and water management capabilities. Under Prime Minister Modi’s directive, the Jal Shakti Ministry is expediting approvals for canal expansion and dam upgrades—most notably the Ranbir Canal extension (expected to triple diversion capacity to 150 m³/s) and the de-siltation of the Salal Dam. However, experts highlight that current treaty provisions limit India to "run-of-river" hydropower installations and a maximum storage of around 4.4 km³, making it infeasible to completely halt water flow to Pakistan in the near term.
India’s suspension of hydrological data sharing—integral to flood warnings—serves as an additional pressure tactic, impairing Pakistan’s water management efforts.
Diplomatic Undercurrents and Legal Maneuvers
Despite mounting economic stress, Pakistan maintains a cautious diplomatic posture. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar affirmed that Islamabad is “ready, but not desperate” to engage in dialogue extending beyond terrorism—explicitly urging talks on water rights. Meanwhile, legal recourse is being explored: Pakistan is preparing to challenge India’s actions through the World Bank, the International Court of Justice, or the Permanent Court of Arbitration, contending that India’s unilateral suspension violates the treaty.
Analysts warn, however, that resorting to legal channels may prolong uncertainty amid escalating regional tensions.
Wider Economic Fragility and Strategic Implications
Economic ripple effects extend beyond agriculture: Pakistan is already grappling with external debt above $131 billion and fragile forex reserves, barely covering three months of imports. A prolonged water crisis threatens to derail the $7 billion IMF program, exacerbate unemployment, and fuel inflation—compounding the fallout from recent military skirmishes.
International observers caution that weaponizing water may set a dangerous precedent. Analysts warn that just as India may apply pressure via water, China could follow suit upstream on the Brahmaputra—revealing the vulnerability of downstream nations in geopolitically competitive river basins.
Conclusion: A Precarious Path Ahead
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty marks a watershed moment in India-Pakistan relations—transforming a once-stable water-sharing mechanism into a flashpoint. Pakistan faces an escalating crisis affecting its food security, livelihoods, and ecological integrity. India, while still constrained by treaty obligations, is fortifying its strategic position through infrastructure initiatives and diplomatic leverage.
As the monsoon approaches, a temporary reprieve may emerge from rainfall. However, without restoration of treaty obligations and meaningful dialogue, the structural vulnerabilities of the Indus Basin will worsen. The international community and regional powers now face a critical juncture: support for stability through diplomacy, arbitration, or mediation could avert a crisis whose ripple effects risk destabilizing the entire South Asian region.
(Sources: NDTV, Times of India, IndiaTV News)
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