Indus Waters Treaty: Pakistan’s Dam Operations Threaten Pakistan’s Punjab Agriculture

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a 1960 agreement governing water sharing between India and Pakistan, is under severe strain as reduced water flows from Pakistani dams jeopardize agriculture in Pakistan’s Punjab province, a critical agricultural hub. Official data from Pakistan indicates a 15 percent drop in water releases from key reservoirs like Tarbela and Mangla compared to last year, pushing Punjab’s canal systems to critical “dead storage” levels. This article explores the causes, impacts, and broader implications of this escalating water crisis, drawing on multiple sources for a comprehensive overview.

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 sought to divide the water of the Indus river and its tributaries equitably between India and Pakistan. (Representational image: PTI) | News18

Background of the Indus Waters Treaty

The IWT, brokered by the World Bank, allocates the waters of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi), while Pakistan manages the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab). India is permitted limited non-consumptive use of the western rivers for irrigation and hydropower, provided it does not significantly disrupt downstream flows to Pakistan. Despite its historical success in averting water conflicts, recent developments have strained the treaty, with both nations accusing each other of violations.

Pakistan’s Dam Operations and Reduced Water Flows

Declining Reservoir Levels

Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reports that water levels in the Tarbela and Mangla dams have fallen to 10 percent of capacity, driven by below-average monsoon rains and reduced glacial melt in the Himalayas. To conserve water, Pakistan has cut releases by 15 percent, resulting in critically low flows downstream, particularly affecting the Chenab and Jhelum rivers that feed irrigation systems in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Some monitoring stations in Punjab report water levels nearing “dead storage,” where water is insufficient for effective use.

Role of Pakistan’s Dam Infrastructure

Pakistan’s expanding dam projects, including the controversial Diamer-Bhasha Dam, have raised concerns in India about potential flow manipulation. Indian experts argue that these projects, combined with inefficiencies in Pakistan’s irrigation systems—where up to 40 percent of water is lost to seepage, according to a 2024 Pakistan Council for Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) report—exacerbate downstream shortages. Pakistan insists its actions comply with the IWT, citing climatic challenges as the primary cause.

Impact on Pakistan’s Punjab Agriculture

Pakistan’s Punjab province, often referred to as the country’s “breadbasket,” produces over 50 percent of Pakistan’s wheat and significant portions of rice, cotton, and sugarcane, making it vital to national food security. The reduced water flow threatens over 16 million hectares of farmland in Punjab, with potential yield losses of up to 30 percent for water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane. Farmers preparing for the sowing season face immediate risks, as canal systems struggle to meet irrigation demands. A senior IRSA official warned, “Without sufficient water, Punjab’s farmers could face catastrophic losses, threatening Pakistan’s food supply chain.”

Escalating Tensions and Treaty Suspension

India’s Response

Tensions over the IWT surged in April 2025 when India suspended the treaty following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which it attributed to Pakistan. The suspension halted data-sharing and technical meetings under the Permanent Indus Commission, complicating water management. India has also initiated untimely reservoir flushing in Jammu and Kashmir, affecting downstream flows in Pakistan, and is exploring new canal systems and storage dams on the western rivers, though these projects may take years to complete.

Pakistan’s Perspective

Pakistan has condemned India’s suspension as an “act of war,” arguing that the IWT lacks an exit clause and requires mutual agreement for termination under Article XII(4). Pakistani officials have sought World Bank mediation, while posts on X highlight public concern, noting a 10 percent water decline in Pakistan’s Punjab province and drastic reductions at the Rasul Barrage on the Jhelum River. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s May 2025 remarks mocking Pakistan’s panic over the treaty suspension have further inflamed tensions.

Broader Implications for Regional Stability

Humanitarian and Economic Risks

The water crisis threatens both nations. In Pakistan, where 80 percent of agriculture depends on the Indus system, shortages endanger 16 million hectares of crops and urban water supplies in cities like Karachi and Lahore. In Pakistan’s Punjab, agricultural losses could disrupt national food security and exacerbate economic challenges. Inter-provincial disputes, particularly between Punjab and Sindh over water allocation, mirror the broader India-Pakistan conflict, with Sindh accusing Punjab of hoarding water resources.

Geopolitical Concerns

The suspension of the IWT raises fears of regional instability, particularly if China, upstream on the Brahmaputra River, alters flows to India in retaliation. The World Bank’s role as mediator remains uncertain, as it has not been formally notified of India’s suspension, raising questions about the legality of unilateral actions under international law.

Pathways to Resolution

Experts urge immediate dialogue to restore cooperation under the IWT. Proposed solutions include joint water management initiatives, such as diversion tunnels to optimize water use, and confidence-building measures to rebuild trust. India’s planned projects, like the Shahpurkandi and Ujh dams, aim to maximize its eastern river share but require careful ecological and geopolitical consideration. Without swift action, the Indus River system risks becoming a flashpoint for conflict, threatening millions of livelihoods.

Conclusion

The Indus Waters Treaty, a symbol of India-Pakistan cooperation, faces a critical test as Pakistan’s dam operations and India’s treaty suspension deepen the water crisis in Pakistan’s Punjab province. The ripple effects threaten agriculture, food security, and regional stability. Both nations must prioritize diplomacy and innovative water management to avert a humanitarian and geopolitical crisis. As Punjab’s farmers grapple with dwindling water supplies, the urgency for a resolution has never been greater.

(Sources: Firstpost, News18)