India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty Amid Escalating Tensions with Pakistan After Pahalgam Attack

In response to the recent Pahalgam terrorist attack that claimed 26 lives and left several injured, the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, announced a series of strong retaliatory actions against Pakistan. These decisions came following a high-level meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), chaired by PM Modi at his official residence. The CCS highlighted Pakistan’s persistent support for cross-border terrorism and resolved to take decisive steps.

BJP workers protested against Pakistan at the BJP office, Nariman Point in Mumbai following the Pahalgam terror attack, during which they burned the Pakistan flag. (Hindustan Times)

Among the five major measures declared, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 stood out as the most significant. This suspension will remain in effect until Pakistan "credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism."

Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty (1960)

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed on September 19, 1960, is a landmark agreement between India and Pakistan concerning the sharing of water from the Indus River system. It was brokered by the World Bank after nine years of negotiations and signed by India’s then Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistan’s President Ayub Khan.

The treaty allocates the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—to India, and the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan. While Pakistan holds primary rights over the western rivers, India retains the right to limited use for domestic, agricultural, and hydroelectric purposes.

Historical Background and Purpose of the Treaty

After the partition in 1947, the Indus River system became a potential flashpoint since it flows through both countries. In 1948, after India briefly halted the water flow, Pakistan sought intervention from the United Nations, which ultimately led to the World Bank mediating the treaty.

Distribution of Water Under the Treaty

India has full rights over the eastern rivers, while Pakistan enjoys control over the western rivers, which provide it with nearly 80% of the total water flow. In contrast, India utilizes only about 20% of the system’s waters. The Permanent Indus Commission was established under the treaty to resolve disputes.

Impact of Suspension on Pakistan

The suspension of the treaty could significantly affect Pakistan, whose agricultural sector heavily depends on the Indus river system. Provinces like Punjab and Sindh are especially reliant on these rivers for irrigation.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), agriculture contributes 23% to Pakistan’s GDP, supports 68% of rural livelihoods, and employs 37–42% of the labor force. Additionally, 82% of Pakistan’s cultivated land is irrigated via the Indus Basin.

Blocking the river flow could lead to decreased crop yields, water shortages, food insecurity, and overall economic instability.

Pakistan’s Pre-Existing Water Crisis

Reports from the International Institute of Sustainable Development (IISD) highlight Pakistan’s growing water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, poor management, and over-extraction. Cities like Karachi and Lahore are already experiencing severe shortages, with key reservoirs nearing critical levels.

A suspension of the treaty would further strain Pakistan’s dwindling water resources and intensify its ongoing crisis.

India’s Rights and Capabilities Under the Treaty

The IWT allows India to develop up to 13.4 lakh acres of irrigation and store 3.60 million acre-feet of water from the western rivers. India can also construct run-of-the-river dams that do not obstruct water flow.

Examples of such Indian hydropower projects include:

• Uri and Uri-II Dams on the Jhelum River (Baramulla, J&K)

• Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (Bandipora, J&K)

• Salal Dam, Baglihar Dam, Dul Hasti, and Ratle Project on the Chenab River

These installations give India operational flexibility while remaining within the treaty framework.

Conclusion: A Strategic Move with Regional Implications

The Modi government's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty reflects India’s intensified stance against cross-border terrorism. While it serves as a strategic and diplomatic signal, the move could have profound repercussions for Pakistan’s already fragile water and agricultural sectors.

As tensions rise, the future of Indo-Pak water cooperation hangs in the balance, potentially marking a turning point in regional geopolitics.

With inputs from various news agencies