NSA Ajit Doval in Moscow as U.S.–India Trade Tensions Intensify Over Russian Oil

India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval arrived in Moscow on August 5, 2025, at a time when India’s strategic relations with Russia are coming under intense scrutiny from Washington. His visit, originally planned for routine consultations, has gained heightened diplomatic significance following U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff measures against India over its continued purchases of discounted Russian crude oil.

Ajit Doval lands in Moscow amit India-US trade standoff over Russian oil imports | Business Today

Rising Tariff Pressures from Washington

In early August, President Trump announced a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s energy and defense ties with Russia as the main concern. Within days, he threatened an additional 25% levy, bringing the total duty to 50% on a wide range of Indian exports. According to Trump, India’s continued imports of Russian oil “directly fund Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine” and must be curtailed.

Indian officials, however, have strongly rejected these allegations. They argue that the criticism from the U.S. and EU is “unjustified and unreasonable”, pointing out that Western nations themselves maintain significant trade with Russia while simultaneously pressuring India to stop. This stance has been echoed in statements by senior Indian diplomats, who have described New Delhi’s energy decisions as a matter of national sovereignty and economic necessity.

Energy Security as a Strategic Imperative

India’s reliance on discounted Russian oil has been a key factor in controlling inflation and ensuring stable fuel prices domestically. Following the start of the Ukraine conflict, many of India’s traditional suppliers diverted shipments to Europe, creating an energy supply gap. Russian crude, offered at competitive rates, provided a crucial alternative.

The Reserve Bank of India has also sought to downplay fears of inflation spikes if Russian supplies were reduced, suggesting that India could diversify energy sources if required. However, analysts warn that sudden shifts could lead to short-term market volatility, making the continuation of Russian imports strategically important for the country’s economic stability.

Defence Cooperation High on the Agenda

Beyond energy, Doval’s visit is expected to focus on strengthening India–Russia defence cooperation. Discussions are likely to cover expedited delivery of the pending S‑400 air defence missile systems, joint work on fifth-generation fighter aircraft projects like the Su‑57, and the possibility of establishing more Russian defence maintenance facilities in India.

Defence ties have long been a cornerstone of the India–Russia partnership, with Moscow serving as a key supplier of advanced military hardware for decades. Maintaining this relationship remains critical for India’s long-term strategic deterrence, particularly amid growing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

Preparations for Putin’s India Visit

Another major aspect of the trip involves preparatory talks for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s anticipated visit to India later in 2025. Both sides are expected to finalise high-level agreements in energy, defence, and trade during that visit. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar is also scheduled to travel to Moscow later this month, reinforcing the momentum in bilateral engagements.

These back-to-back visits reflect India’s intent to consolidate its “time-tested” partnership with Russia despite mounting geopolitical pressure. Moscow, for its part, continues to value India as a key strategic partner in Asia, both as a market for its exports and as a political counterweight to the West.

Strained India–U.S. Ties

The latest tariff dispute marks a sharp shift from the warmer ties seen between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Donald Trump during Trump’s previous term in office. The U.S. President’s recent overtures toward Pakistan, coupled with his increasingly hardline trade stance, have introduced a new layer of strain to the bilateral relationship.

While Washington remains an important partner for India in areas such as technology, investment, and defence collaboration, the current standoff underscores the limits of that partnership when strategic interests diverge. For India, the challenge lies in balancing its U.S. engagement with its historical alignment with Russia—a balancing act that is becoming more complex with each diplomatic flashpoint.

Conclusion: Navigating a Tightrope in Global Diplomacy

Ajit Doval’s Moscow visit comes at a moment when India’s foreign policy is being tested on multiple fronts. The U.S. tariff threat has the potential to impact billions in exports, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and gems, where the American market is crucial. At the same time, energy security and defence cooperation with Russia remain non-negotiable priorities for New Delhi.

India’s approach appears to be one of measured defiance—asserting its sovereign right to pursue national interests while keeping diplomatic channels open with Washington. How effectively it can manage this delicate balancing act will determine not only the outcome of the current trade dispute but also the trajectory of its role in the evolving global order.

(Sources: Mint, Business Today, NDTV)