India’s Nuclear Arsenal Surpasses Pakistan, Moves Closer to the UK
India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have grown to around 190 warheads, putting the country ahead of Pakistan’s estimated 170, according to the latest assessments by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The figures are estimates because India and other nuclear-armed countries do not publicly disclose the complete details of their nuclear inventories.
The latest assessment also places India within reach of the United Kingdom, which is estimated to possess about 225 nuclear warheads. FAS estimates that more than 160 of India’s warheads are associated with operational delivery systems, while the remainder are linked to newer missile systems under development. The assessment indicates that India’s nuclear capability is evolving not only in terms of numbers but also through the modernisation of its delivery platforms.
Beyond Numbers: Strengthening the Nuclear Triad
India’s strategic capability is increasingly centred on maintaining a credible nuclear triad, allowing nuclear weapons to be delivered from land, air and sea. Its land-based forces include nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, while aircraft provide an additional delivery option. The maritime component is particularly important because submarine-based systems can provide greater survivability and strengthen the country’s second-strike capability.
India has been expanding and modernising its ballistic missile forces while also developing its submarine-based deterrent. The growing importance of sea-based nuclear forces reflects the broader objective of ensuring that India retains a credible retaliatory capability even under extreme circumstances. The Arms Control Association notes that India is continuing to expand ground-launched ballistic missiles, modernise nuclear-capable aircraft and develop its submarine-based deterrent.
China Remains a Crucial Strategic Factor
India’s nuclear posture cannot be viewed only through the India-Pakistan equation. China remains an important factor in New Delhi’s long-term strategic calculations, particularly as Beijing continues to expand its nuclear arsenal.
FAS estimates that China currently possesses around 620 nuclear warheads, considerably more than either India or Pakistan. This growing Chinese capability has contributed to India’s focus on longer-range missile systems and more survivable nuclear forces. As a result, India’s nuclear modernisation is increasingly linked to a broader regional security environment rather than being directed exclusively at Pakistan.
India and Pakistan Follow Different Nuclear Doctrines
The difference between India and Pakistan extends beyond the size of their respective arsenals. India has officially maintained its No First Use policy, under which it has declared that nuclear weapons would be used in retaliation following a nuclear attack. Its approach has traditionally been associated with the principle of credible minimum deterrence.
Pakistan, on the other hand, has not adopted a No First Use commitment. Its nuclear strategy has been shaped significantly by the conventional military balance with India and the objective of maintaining deterrence across different levels of conflict. Therefore, the numerical gap of around 20 warheads should not be interpreted as a straightforward measure of strategic superiority. Survivability, delivery systems, command and control and second-strike capability are equally important components of nuclear deterrence.
India’s Nuclear Capability Is Entering a New Phase
The latest estimates also point to the possibility of further growth. FAS assesses India’s military stockpile at around 190 warheads, while available fissile-material estimates indicate that the country has the capacity to support additional production. However, the potential number of warheads that could eventually be produced should not be confused with weapons that are currently assembled or deployed.
An important development highlighted by SIPRI is that India has begun maintaining a small number of nuclear warheads deployed during peacetime, rather than keeping the entire arsenal separated from delivery systems. SIPRI’s assessment indicated that 12 warheads were deployed in this manner at the beginning of 2026.
A Changing Global Nuclear Landscape
India’s expanding arsenal comes at a time when nuclear-armed states are modernising their forces. FAS estimates that the nine nuclear-armed countries collectively possess around 12,187 nuclear warheads, with Russia and the United States continuing to account for the overwhelming majority of the global inventory. China’s rapidly expanding arsenal is another major development in the international nuclear landscape.
SIPRI has also warned that the global nuclear environment is becoming more challenging, with nuclear weapons increasingly being viewed as instruments of national power while risks of miscalculation and escalation remain significant. Against this backdrop, India’s emphasis on a survivable and credible deterrent reflects the changing security environment in Asia.
The MGMM Outlook
India’s estimated nuclear stockpile of around 190 warheads, now slightly above Pakistan’s estimated 170 and approaching the United Kingdom’s 225, reflects the steady evolution of India’s strategic capabilities. More important than the numbers alone is the continued strengthening of India’s nuclear triad across land, air and sea. The development of submarine-based nuclear forces is particularly significant for ensuring survivability and a credible second-strike capability. India’s nuclear modernisation is also shaped by the wider regional security environment, especially China’s much larger and rapidly expanding arsenal, estimated at around 620 warheads. This makes the strengthening of longer-range missiles, nuclear-capable aircraft and sea-based deterrence an important component of India’s strategic preparedness.
The changing nuclear landscape also highlights the distinction between India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear doctrines. India continues to maintain its declared No First Use policy and emphasis on credible minimum deterrence, while Pakistan has not adopted such a commitment. Therefore, the growing numerical gap should not be viewed as a simple measure of strategic superiority, as delivery systems, survivability, command and control and second-strike capability remain critical. India’s evolving nuclear posture comes amid broader global modernisation of nuclear forces, with China’s expansion adding particular strategic significance in Asia. The continued development of a credible and survivable deterrent demonstrates India’s focus on safeguarding national security and maintaining strategic stability in an increasingly complex regional environment.
(Sources: News18, India Today, Firstpost)
Comments