India on Track to Become World’s Largest Rice Producer in 2024-25: A Milestone in Global Agriculture

India is poised to surpass China as the world’s largest rice producer in the 2024-25 crop year, reflecting a significant shift in global agricultural dynamics. According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s third advance estimates, rice production in India is expected to reach an all-time high of 135.54 million tonnes (MT), potentially eclipsing China’s estimated 132.69 MT.

The prospects of adequate rainfall boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in row. (Reuters) | Financial Express

This leap marks a turning point for the Indian agriculture sector, underscoring improvements in yield, supportive weather conditions, and expanded cultivated areas—factors that have positioned India at the forefront of global rice production.

Record Foodgrain Output Propels Growth

Total foodgrain production in India is estimated at a record 353.2 MT in the 2023-24 crop year (July–June), up 6% from the previous year. This rise is largely driven by robust rice and wheat outputs. Wheat production, the country’s second-largest foodgrain crop, is forecasted to reach 112.01 MT, a slight drop from earlier projections but still the second highest on record.

The output of pulses and oilseeds has also seen a strong upward trend. Pulses production is pegged at 25.4 MT, while oilseeds are expected to touch 42.3 MT. Groundnut (11.89 MT) and soybean (15.18 MT) are both expected to hit record levels this year, boosting India’s self-sufficiency in edible oil ingredients.

Favorable Monsoons Play a Key Role

A major catalyst behind this surge has been favorable monsoon rains in 2023, which delivered precipitation at 108% of the long-period average. This timely and abundant rainfall contributed to strong sowing activity during both the kharif and rabi seasons, particularly in states like Punjab, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh—India’s leading rice producers.

Notably, about 48% of India’s arable land depends on monsoon irrigation. Hence, above-normal rainfall conditions have a direct bearing on yield and production volume, especially for water-intensive crops like paddy.

Global Context: Surpassing China

India’s rice output is expected to exceed that of China—the long-standing global leader in rice production. As per estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China is projected to produce 132.69 MT of rice in the 2024-25 cycle, a marginal decline from previous years.

India’s advancement comes at a time when climate concerns, high input costs, and aging rural demographics are affecting agricultural productivity in parts of East Asia, including China. In contrast, India's rice farming, supported by government subsidies, minimum support prices (MSP), and rural labor availability, continues to maintain competitive production levels.

Impact on Exports and Food Security

India has already been the world’s largest rice exporter since 2012. In FY24, the country exported approximately 22 MT of rice, including basmati and non-basmati varieties, despite a temporary ban on certain grain exports due to domestic inflation concerns. With record production on the horizon, analysts expect India to reclaim and expand its rice exports, particularly to Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

This growth will also have a stabilizing effect on India’s domestic food security. A larger buffer stock allows for more effective implementation of welfare schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY), which provides subsidized food grains to over 800 million people.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the Indian government has set a foodgrain production target of 354.64 MT for the 2025-26 crop year. This target, while ambitious, is backed by continued investments in irrigation, digital agri-tech, and high-yield seed varieties.

Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently stated, “This year has been exceptional for Indian agriculture. We have achieved record production in rice, wheat, maize, soybean, and groundnut. This is a testament to our farmers' hard work and the government's efforts to support them.”

India’s emergence as the world’s leading rice producer signifies not just a symbolic achievement but a strategic advantage—positioning the nation as a major player in the global food supply chain at a time when food security is a growing concern worldwide.

(Sources: Financial Express, Business Standard)