India and UAE Push for $100 Billion in Non-Oil Trade: A New Era of Economic Partnership

India and the United Arab Emirates are entering a renewed phase of economic cooperation, setting an ambitious target of USD 100 billion in non-oil trade within the next few years. This target marks a significant evolution from earlier goals and signals a deeper strategic alignment shaped by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). With rising trade volumes, empowered institutions, and growing regulatory coordination, both nations are preparing to expand their partnership far beyond traditional oil-based exchanges.

India–UAE CEPA talks target $100 billion non-oil trade by 2030 | Financial Times

CEPA’s Evolution and the Shift Toward Non-Oil Trade

When CEPA was implemented in May 2022, the primary objective was to lift overall bilateral trade to USD 100 billion by 2030. However, rapid progress in bilateral exchanges prompted both nations to set a more focused and ambitious target: reaching USD 100 billion in non-oil and non-precious-metals trade alone. This shift reflects the transformation of the India-UAE relationship from energy-centric trade to a diversified, multi-sectoral economic corridor.

Non-oil trade today is estimated to be between USD 50–55 billion, demonstrating steady growth in manufacturing, machinery, chemicals, agriculture, electronics, and textiles. Leaders from both sides have suggested that given current momentum, the revised target may be achievable within just three to four years—well ahead of the 2030 timeline.

Trade Expansion: Evidence of Strong Momentum

Bilateral trade between India and the UAE has already crossed USD 83 billion in FY 2023–24, nearly doubling compared to the period before CEPA. Non-oil trade now makes up the majority of this value, driven by sectors that reflect India’s manufacturing and technological capabilities. Exports of smartphones, electrical machinery, engineering goods, textiles, gems and jewellery, and agricultural products have seen substantial year-on-year improvement.

India’s non-oil exports to the UAE grew at an average of 25 percent annually under CEPA, showing that tariff reductions and simplified procedures are directly enabling tangible commercial gains. The UAE’s role as a global re-export hub also amplifies the reach of Indian goods, helping them penetrate markets across Africa, West Asia, and Europe.

Frameworks and Institutions Strengthening the Partnership

A key reason behind the success of CEPA has been the creation of multiple joint committees that oversee various dimensions of the agreement. These include working groups on customs facilitation, rules of origin, food safety standards, technical barriers to trade, services liberalization, and investment cooperation. Each group plays a crucial role in minimizing procedural obstacles and ensuring smooth cross-border flows.

Recent discussions have focused on improving market access, enhancing data-sharing systems, streamlining certificate-of-origin mechanisms, and resolving regulatory bottlenecks. India has also communicated its decision to allocate gold import quotas through transparent bidding—an issue particularly important for the UAE, given its major role in global gold refining and trade. Together, these measures build confidence and predictability for businesses on both sides.

Strategic Significance of the $100 Billion Goal

The push toward non-oil trade reflects a mutual intention to diversify economic growth and reduce dependence on volatile energy markets. For India, the UAE offers an ideal export destination through its efficient supply chain network and world-class logistics infrastructure. For the UAE, India represents one of the world’s fastest-growing major markets, with rising demand across consumer goods, technology, healthcare, services, and food products.

The agreement also opens doors for closer collaboration in services such as education, tourism, fintech, healthcare, telecommunications, and construction. Growing foreign direct investment from the UAE into Indian infrastructure, renewable energy, technology parks, and logistics hubs hints at a shift from transactional trade to long-term developmental partnerships. The two nations are even exploring joint ventures in third countries, especially across Africa.

Challenges Ahead: Sustaining Momentum in a Volatile World

Despite impressive progress, the journey toward USD 100 billion in non-oil trade is not without obstacles. Regulatory complexities, compliance issues, and global economic instability pose potential risks. India must continue enhancing the competitiveness of its exports while ensuring quality standards and supply chain reliability. Meanwhile, geopolitical disruptions, fluctuating commodity prices, and competition from other exporting nations may influence bilateral trade flows.

To stay on track, both sides will need continuous policy coordination, regulatory reform, and improved digital systems to support faster, more transparent trade processes.

The MGMM Outlook

The growing economic alignment between India and the UAE represents a decisive shift toward a deeper, future-focused partnership that goes far beyond traditional oil-driven engagement. The move to target USD 100 billion in non-oil trade highlights how both countries are betting on diversified, stable, and innovation-led growth. CEPA has clearly accelerated this transformation—reflected in rising trade volumes, streamlined procedures, and expanding cooperation across manufacturing, electronics, agriculture, engineering goods, and services. With institutions on both sides actively resolving regulatory hurdles, improving data-sharing, and strengthening market access, the economic relationship is becoming more predictable and business-friendly. The UAE’s role as a global re-export hub adds further momentum, amplifying the presence of Indian goods across multiple regions.

At the same time, this partnership is evolving into something more strategic and long-term. Investments in infrastructure, renewable energy, technology parks, logistics networks, and future-ready industries signal a shift from transactional trade to integrated economic development. Collaborative opportunities in fintech, tourism, healthcare, education, and construction are widening the scope of engagement, while joint ventures targeting markets like Africa reflect a shared global ambition. Although global volatility, compliance issues, and geopolitical challenges remain, sustained coordination and digitalization can help maintain the pace. The growing synergy between the two nations shows a clear direction—towards a broader economic corridor that strengthens regional stability, accelerates growth, and sets a new benchmark for bilateral cooperation.

(Sources: Financial Express, The Hindu, DD News)