China’s Mega-Dam on the Brahmaputra: India’s Strategic Vigilance and Response

China has recently embarked on constructing what is set to become the world’s largest hydropower dam on the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra River, known in China as the Yarlung Tsangpo. This development has captured India’s attention, as the Brahmaputra is a vital water source flowing downstream into Indian states such as Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, and further into Bangladesh. In response, India is carefully monitoring China’s dam activities while contemplating accelerating its own hydropower projects to protect its water security and strategic interests.

The mega dam with a price tag of around 1.2 trillion yuan ($167.1 billion or Rs 14.4 lakh crore) is designed to harness the power of the Yarlung Tsangpo river. File image/AFP | Firstpost

China’s Motuo Hydropower Project: Scale and Ambition

On July 19, 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang inaugurated the groundbreaking ceremony for the Motuo (Medog) Hydropower Station in Tibet’s Nyingchi region. This massive infrastructure project, estimated to cost between $137 billion and $170 billion, is designed to dwarf the world-famous Three Gorges Dam in terms of power generation capacity. With plans for multiple cascading dam stations along the river’s deep Himalayan gorge, the Motuo complex aims to generate approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, a volume exceeding the electricity consumption of many entire countries.

The dam is a key component of China’s commitment to expanding renewable energy sources and stimulating economic growth, especially in its western provinces. However, its location near the strategically sensitive Great Bend of the Brahmaputra — close to the disputed border with India — adds layers of geopolitical significance.

Environmental and Geopolitical Implications

While China celebrates this milestone, environmentalists and regional experts raise serious concerns. The Brahmaputra gorge is among the most ecologically fragile and seismically active regions on earth. Building such a vast dam threatens to disrupt biodiversity hotspots and delicate ecosystems. Tibetan communities and activists have also expressed fears about cultural and environmental degradation.

For downstream nations like India and Bangladesh, the stakes are even higher. The Brahmaputra is crucial for agriculture, livelihoods, and drinking water for millions. There is apprehension that China’s ability to control water flow could be leveraged during geopolitical tensions — either by restricting water supply or releasing sudden floods. Such “water weaponization” is a nightmare scenario that adds urgency to diplomatic dialogues and regional water governance.

India’s Response: Fast-Tracking the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project

Recognizing the potential challenges, India is prioritizing the Upper Siang Multipurpose Storage Project (SUMP) in Arunachal Pradesh as a strategic countermeasure. This proposed dam, designed to be India’s largest hydropower facility, aims to harness the Siang River — the name for the Brahmaputra in Arunachal — for both energy production and flood management.

The Indian government, through the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC), initiated feasibility studies for the project in 2022. However, these efforts have met with resistance from local indigenous communities concerned about displacement and environmental damage. Despite these challenges, state and central officials emphasize the dam’s importance for national security, energy independence, and resilience against upstream developments.

Arunachal Pradesh’s Chief Minister Pema Khandu has underscored the dam’s strategic value, highlighting that if China releases water from its dam, downstream regions in India, including Assam, could be severely affected. He has urged for local cooperation and transparent surveys to ensure the project progresses with social responsibility.

The Role of Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation

India has consistently sought to engage China diplomatically, urging transparency and consultation regarding upstream dam projects on the Brahmaputra. Despite these efforts, formal water-sharing agreements between the two nations remain elusive, complicating effective joint management of the shared river basin.

Hydropolitical tensions around the Brahmaputra mirror broader global challenges related to transboundary water governance. Experts argue that long-term stability requires sustained dialogue, scientific data sharing, and cooperative frameworks that respect ecological sustainability and the needs of all riparian communities.

Broader Impacts and Future Outlook

Beyond geopolitical calculations, both China’s Motuo dam and India’s Upper Siang project carry profound environmental and social implications. Massive dam constructions can alter sediment flows, threaten wildlife habitats, and displace indigenous populations — issues that demand careful, inclusive planning.

Economically, these projects symbolize each country’s ambitions for green energy transition and rural development. Strategically, they form part of a broader contest over regional influence and security.

The coming decade will be crucial as China advances Motuo towards completion and India strives to operationalize Upper Siang. The interplay of infrastructure, diplomacy, and environmental stewardship will shape the Brahmaputra basin’s future, with consequences for millions who depend on its waters.

Conclusion

China’s construction of the Motuo Hydropower Station marks a pivotal moment in the geopolitics of the Brahmaputra River. India’s vigilant monitoring and push to expedite the Upper Siang dam project reflect an urgent quest to safeguard water security, ecological balance, and regional stability. Navigating these complex challenges demands not only infrastructure investments but also enhanced diplomacy and respect for the fragile Himalayan environment. The unfolding saga underscores how vital shared natural resources are to peace, prosperity, and sustainability in South Asia.

(Sources: Hindustan Times, Firstpost, Economic Times)