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A Decade of Demographic Shift: Islam’s Surge, Hindu Stability, and Christianity’s Challenge

Between 2010 and 2020, the global religious landscape underwent a profound transformation. According to an extensive Pew Research Center analysis based on over 2,700 censuses and demographic surveys from 201 countries, every major religion saw numerical growth. However, changes in relative population shares revealed a dramatic reordering of influence and presence, both globally and locally.


Islam fastest-growing religion in world (AP Image) | News18
Islam fastest-growing religion in world (AP Image) | News18

Islam’s Rapid Growth: Driven by Demographics and Migration

Islam emerged as the fastest-growing major religion of the decade. The Muslim population grew by an estimated 347 million, reaching around 2 billion globally by 2020. This raised Islam’s share of the world population from 23.8% to 25.6%. The growth wasn’t due to conversions but rather demographic momentum: Muslims are younger (median age 24) and have higher fertility rates (2.9 children per woman vs. 2.2 among non-Muslims).


The OpIndia article highlights how this growth varied locally:


  • Kazakhstan saw the Muslim share rise by 8.2%.

  • Benin and Lebanon saw increases of 7.9% and 5.5%, respectively.

  • In contrast, Oman and Tanzania witnessed decreases in Muslim share by 8.3% and 5.5%, respectively, largely due to migration shifts.


Asia-Pacific remained the central hub for Islam, housing over 62% of all Muslims, particularly in Indonesia, Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh.


Christianity: Widespread but Shrinking in Share

Christianity remained the world’s largest religion, with the number of adherents growing from 2.18 billion to 2.30 billion. However, its share of the global population fell from 30.6% to 28.8%. This decline is partly attributable to religious switching, particularly in North America and Europe. For every 100 people raised Christian, 17 left the faith, while only 5 joined.


Sub-Saharan Africa now hosts the largest Christian population share (31%), overtaking Europe. This shift is linked to high fertility and youthful populations in the African continent.


Hinduism: Modest Growth Amid Stability

Hindus experienced moderate growth, increasing from 1.1 billion to approximately 1.2 billion, maintaining a global share of about 14.9%. Despite this numeric rise, the percentage share dipped slightly from 15.0% to 14.9% due to faster growth among other groups.


Nearly 99% of Hindus still live in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Notably, Hindu migration patterns led to major demographic changes:


  • The Hindu population in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) rose by 62%, now totaling 3.2 million.

  • North America saw a 55% rise, with 3.6 million Hindus.

  • Although these increases did not drastically alter the global Hindu share, they reshaped regional balances.


In South Asia, Hindu population shares fell slightly:



The Rise of the Religiously Unaffiliated

The number of people identifying with no religion (atheists, agnostics, and "nones") grew by 270 million, reaching about 1.9 billion globally, or 24.2% of the world population. Despite having a relatively older demographic and lower fertility rates, this group expanded through rapid disaffiliation, particularly from Christianity in Western nations.


Buddhists: A Decline Rooted in Demography

Buddhism was the only major religion to experience a numerical decline. The global Buddhist population fell by about 19 million, due to aging populations and low fertility rates in East Asian countries like Japan and China. This led to a drop in global share to just 4.1%.


Historical Perspective: India’s Shifting Religious Composition (1950–2015)

A study by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) noted that from 1950 to 2015:


  • Hindu share of India’s population dropped by 7.8%.

  • Muslim share increased by 43.1%.

  • Christian and Sikh shares rose by 5.4% and 6.6% respectively.


These shifts reflect long-term demographic trends and regional variances in birth rates, religious switching, and migration.


Future Projections: Islam Set to Rival Christianity

According to Pew projections, if current trends persist, Islam could equal or surpass Christianity in global share by the end of the century. By 2050, Muslims and Christians are each expected to account for about 30% of the world’s population. In Europe, Muslims may comprise about 8% of the population by 2030.


Conclusion

The decade from 2010 to 2020 marked a transformative era for global religions. Islam’s rapid growth reflects demographic strength and youthful populations. Christianity continues to dominate numerically but is shrinking in share due to aging and secularization. Hinduism remains numerically strong and stable, while migration is reshaping its global footprint. Meanwhile, the rise of the religiously unaffiliated and the numerical decline of Buddhists signal deeper societal and cultural shifts. As fertility rates, migration, and religious switching continue to evolve, the world’s religious map is poised for even more dramatic changes in the decades ahead.


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