India to Expand Russian Oil Imports in September Despite U.S. Pressure
- MGMMTeam
- Aug 29
- 3 min read
India is preparing to increase its Russian oil imports in September, even as diplomatic tensions with the United States rise. According to industry estimates, imports are expected to grow by 10–20% compared to August, which translates into an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day. This move signals New Delhi’s determination to prioritize energy security and economic logic over mounting Western pressure.
Why India Is Buying More Russian Oil
The primary factor driving this surge in Russian oil purchases is attractive pricing. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russian refining capacity, forcing Moscow to offload crude at deeper discounts. Traders report that Urals crude for September is being offered at $2–$3 per barrel below Brent, compared to only a $1.50 discount in August — one of the narrowest margins since sanctions were imposed in 2022.
For India, which imports over 80% of its crude oil needs, these discounts are too significant to ignore. In the first three weeks of August, India imported nearly 1.5 million barrels per day from Russia, making it the country’s single largest supplier. This accounted for nearly 40% of India’s overall crude intake, underscoring Russia’s dominant role in India’s energy basket.
Rising Tariffs from the United States
The decision to continue ramping up Russian imports comes at a time when the United States has taken a tough line against New Delhi. The Trump administration recently hiked tariffs on Indian exports up to 50%, citing India’s continued energy partnership with Moscow as a major concern. Senior U.S. officials, including trade adviser Peter Navarro, argued that India’s purchases indirectly fund Russia’s war in Ukraine. Washington has even hinted that tariffs could be rolled back if New Delhi reduced its dependence on Russian crude.
However, Indian officials have dismissed these accusations as both unjustified and hypocritical. They argue that while India is being pressured to halt purchases, several Western countries maintain indirect or alternative trade flows with Moscow. For New Delhi, the calculus remains clear: cheap Russian oil not only stabilizes domestic fuel prices but also shields the economy from global oil market volatility.
Economic Benefits and Strategic Trade-Offs
The financial gains from discounted Russian oil have been significant. Some early estimates suggested that Indian refiners collectively saved up to $16 billion since increasing their purchases in 2022. Reliance Industries alone reportedly reaped benefits of around $6 billion. However, more conservative analysis by brokerage CLSA pegs the net gain at closer to $2.5 billion annually — roughly 0.6% of India’s GDP.
Even if the actual benefit is smaller than initially believed, it remains strategically important. Lower crude prices help reduce India’s current account deficit, ease inflationary pressures, and provide breathing room for the government to keep domestic fuel prices stable. In an economy of India’s scale, these factors hold considerable weight in political as well as economic decision-making.
Global Implications of India’s Oil Choices
India’s continued purchase of Russian oil is not just a bilateral issue with the United States; it has global market implications. Analysts warn that if India were to sharply curtail Russian imports, global supply could shrink by as much as one million barrels per day. Such a move could drive crude prices back toward $100 per barrel, or even higher in a tight market.
This risk explains why India remains steadfast in its approach. By continuing to import discounted oil, New Delhi not only secures its own needs but also acts as a stabilizing force in global energy markets. For Russia, India has become one of the most reliable outlets for its crude, particularly at a time when Western sanctions and European embargoes have restricted Moscow’s options.
Conclusion: Balancing Energy Security and Diplomacy
India’s decision to expand Russian oil imports in September underscores the tough balancing act it faces between safeguarding national energy security and navigating complex diplomatic challenges. While U.S. tariffs add pressure, New Delhi is unwilling to jeopardize affordable energy supplies that underpin its economic growth.
Going forward, India will likely continue to walk this tightrope, defending its strategic autonomy while seeking ways to de-escalate tensions with Washington. For now, the message is clear: economic pragmatism will outweigh diplomatic pressure, and Russian oil will remain a central part of India’s energy mix.
(Sources: India Today, Financial Times, Economic Times)
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