India’s ₹6.4 Lakh Crore Hydropower Plan: Strategic Leap Amid China’s Upstream Dam Projects

India has unveiled one of its most ambitious energy initiatives in recent years, a ₹6.4 lakh crore (approximately $77 billion) hydropower transmission and development plan aimed at harnessing over 76 gigawatts (GW) of clean energy from the Brahmaputra River basin by 2047. The plan, presented by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), encompasses 208 large-scale hydroelectric projects spread across 12 sub-basins in India’s northeastern states. With Arunachal Pradesh alone expected to contribute 52.2 GW, this initiative underscores India’s dual objectives: meeting domestic energy demands sustainably while strategically responding to China’s growing infrastructural presence upstream.

The Brahmaputra, which originates in Tibet and flows through India and Bangladesh, is a lifeline for millions. India’s hydropower ambitions in the region are being closely watched as China has advanced its own mega-dam projects along the Yarlung Zangbo, the upper course of the Brahmaputra. These projects have raised concerns in India about potential water shortages during dry seasons, threatening agricultural productivity, energy generation, and overall water security downstream.

The Brahmaputra basin spans parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and West Bengal, and holds more than 80% of India's untapped hydro potential, the report said, with Arunachal Pradesh alone accounting for 52.2 GW

Structuring the Hydropower Vision

The Indian hydropower plan is divided into two phases. The first phase, spanning until 2035, involves an investment of ₹1.91 lakh crore (approximately $23 billion) to initiate priority projects and establish essential transmission infrastructure. Phase two, covering the period from 2035 to 2047, plans a further ₹4.52 lakh crore (around $55 billion) to complete the remaining projects.

The plan integrates both conventional hydropower projects and pumped-storage systems, with 64.9 GW expected from conventional hydropower and 11.1 GW from pumped storage. Central public sector enterprises such as NHPC, NEEPCO, and SJVN are tasked with implementing these projects, some of which are already under development. This ambitious infrastructure rollout also aligns with India’s broader energy targets of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power by 2030 and reaching net-zero emissions by 2070, reinforcing the country’s commitment to renewable energy.

The China Factor: Upstream Dams and Geopolitical Implications

China’s construction of large dams on the Yarlung Zangbo River has amplified India’s strategic concerns. These dams, part of a multibillion-dollar project in Tibet, are designed to harness massive hydropower potential. While Chinese authorities describe them as “run-of-river” dams with minimal long-term water storage, Indian analysts remain cautious. There is a real concern that China could influence the river’s flow during critical dry months, potentially affecting downstream states in India such as Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, which depend heavily on the Brahmaputra for agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectric generation.

India has raised formal objections and requested transparency from China regarding hydrological data and operational plans. The geopolitical stakes are significant, as the Brahmaputra’s transboundary nature involves not only India and China but also Bangladesh, creating the potential for regional tensions if water flow is manipulated.

Balancing Development and Local Concerns

While India’s hydropower push is primarily driven by energy security and strategic considerations, it has sparked domestic debates. In Arunachal Pradesh, local communities have expressed apprehensions regarding displacement and environmental consequences from mega-dam projects, including concerns over submerged villages and altered ecosystems. Projects like the Upper Siang Multipurpose Project have become focal points for these concerns, highlighting the social and ecological trade-offs of large-scale infrastructure projects.

Despite protests, state authorities emphasize the benefits of development, including job creation, enhanced energy access, and regional growth. The Arunachal Pradesh government has also approved joint ventures with NHPC and NEEPCO to develop hydropower capacity of up to 19 GW, signaling a strong push toward implementing the central plan while balancing local engagement.

Environmental and Strategic Considerations

The hydropower projects in India’s northeastern region carry significant environmental and geological risks. The Himalayas and northeastern terrains are seismically active, making large reservoirs potentially hazardous. The diversion of sediment-laden waters can impact downstream fertility and riverbank stability, while changes to flow regimes can affect aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity.

Strategically, these projects also provide India with leverage in water resource management, particularly in countering the potential impacts of China’s upstream dams. By developing its own hydroelectric capacity and storage systems, India aims to safeguard energy production, ensure water availability, and strengthen regional resilience against potential upstream flow manipulations.

Looking Ahead

India’s ₹6.4 lakh crore hydropower plan represents an ambitious, long-term strategy that merges energy sustainability with geopolitical foresight. The successful execution of this plan will require careful coordination between central and state authorities, robust environmental safeguards, and meaningful engagement with local communities.

While the initiative promises substantial gains in renewable energy and regional development, its implementation will test India’s capacity to balance strategic imperatives with ecological preservation and social responsibility. How India navigates these challenges could define the country’s energy trajectory and its management of transboundary water resources for decades to come.

The MGMM Outlook

India’s unveiling of its ₹6.4 lakh crore hydropower initiative marks a decisive step toward energy self-reliance and regional strategic planning. By targeting 76 GW of clean energy from the Brahmaputra basin by 2047, the plan demonstrates India’s intent to secure long-term energy needs while addressing the geopolitical challenge posed by China’s upstream dams on the Yarlung Zangbo. With Arunachal Pradesh contributing over half of the planned capacity, the project not only aligns with India’s renewable energy targets but also strengthens the country’s ability to manage transboundary water resources. The phased development strategy, incorporating both conventional hydropower and pumped-storage systems, reflects a methodical approach to large-scale infrastructure growth, involving central public sector enterprises such as NHPC, NEEPCO, and SJVN to ensure timely execution.

At the same time, the plan highlights the delicate balance between strategic priorities and local concerns. Environmental risks, seismic vulnerabilities, and the potential displacement of communities in Arunachal Pradesh underscore the need for careful planning and meaningful engagement with stakeholders. India’s proactive approach to managing the Brahmaputra’s waters, especially in light of China’s upstream activities, shows a clear understanding of the region’s geopolitical and ecological stakes. By investing in hydropower development while attempting to mitigate social and environmental challenges, India positions itself to simultaneously achieve energy security, regional growth, and sustainable management of its critical river systems.

(Sources: Moneycontrol, NDTV, Times of India)